THE FUTURE OF PETROLEUM: 2024 OIL AND GAS TRENDS COME INTO FOCUS

Oil, gas, and petroleum will continue to face uncertainty and volatility in 2024 as the sector embraces new technologies and grapples with climate pressure. While fossil fuels will still dominate the global energy mix, renewables expansion and climate action will strain the oil and gas industry – as will disruption and geopolitical tensions.

A major development is increased use of natural gas over oil, with forecasts of over 2% annual demand growth for gas through 2025. Gas emits fewer emissions when burned, so it gains market share for power generation, heating, and transport. More nations will expand gas imports, storage, pipelines and LNG capacity. However, emissions rules and carbon pricing programs may curb gas growth longer-term.

The industry will also employ new technologies like carbon capture, hydrogen, biofuels, and synthetic fuels to reduce dependence on oil. Carbon capture systems will come online, capturing 40MT of CO2 annually by 2025. Blue and turquoise hydrogen will also scale up. Blended with natural gas, hydrogen can reduce emissions from power plants, furnaces, and transports. Sustainable aviation fuels will also reach 2% of global jet fuel demand by 2024.

Geopolitical tensions pose supply risks as well, especially in the Middle East and between Russia and Europe. Any oil disruptions may spike notoriously volatile prices. Industry consolidation will increase among shale companies in the US and oil majors in Europe and Asia. This can help firms weather pricing ups and downs.

Overall oil demand is expected to peak by 2030 then decline gradually. But in 2024, EVs will only displace roughly 2 million barrels per day of transport fuel while plastics/petrochemicals demand is still rising. This means continued oil and gas exploration, albeit with more scrutiny and restrictions. Public and policy opposition will force restrict expansion in many Western markets though.

In total, 2024 will likely seem like a transitional period for oil and gas companies. They will reluctantly start to diversify into cleaner fuels and assets, accelerating their transition plans to survive inevitable decline this decade. It will be a delicate balancing act to maintain robust fossil fuel businesses while slowly repositioning themselves – all under increasing climate constraints and public pressure. Expect an uneasy balance of old and new.