FUTURES STUDIES VS. FUTURE RESEARCH – WHAT TO KNOW

In an increasingly fast-paced and turbulent world, being able to anticipate future trends and developments is becoming ever more crucial. This is the focus of the interdisciplinary fields of futures studies and futures research. Rather than making predictions, these disciplines aim to systematically explore the possibilities that could occur to better prepare organizations, communities, and societies for the changes to come.

Futures studies examines the sources, patterns, and causes of social and civilizational change. It considers not just present evidence, but also works to identify emerging issues, potential disruptions, and alternativefuture scenarios. By mapping out multiple plausible futures, it allows for more informed strategizing and decision-making in the present.

Within futures studies, the quantitative methodologies and modeling techniques of futures research play a key role. This includes environmental scanning to detect weak signal trends, issues analysis to understand future forces and drivers, and techniques like causal layered analysis to probe underlying assumptions and worldviews. Computational modeling, simulations, and data mining also aid in assessing complex systems and their possible future trajectories.

On a more creative and open-ended front, foresight activities such as scenarios planning map out divergent narratives of how the future could evolve based on different factors. Related visioning exercises allow organizations and communities to envision their desired optimal future state and work backwards to develop roadmaps and strategic plans to help shape it into a reality.

From a normative perspective, futures studies also examines and debates the futures that should be pursued based on ethical considerations around values like sustainability, human rights, and equitable development. This futures thinking informs policy-making, corporate strategy, innovation pipelines, and long-term societal planning.

Unlike traditional strategic planning based on forecasting and extrapolation, futures studies emphasizes anticipating multiple alternatives using both empirical analysis and imaginative exploration. This makes it especially useful for navigating uncertainties and discontinuities that could dramatically alter current trajectories.

All told, futures studies equips society with a more future-conscious mindset, expanded peripheral vision, and contingency plans for unexpected disruptions. In a world growing more volatile, being able to run different future scenarios and their implications will only become more critical in the years ahead.