14 Jul A BRIEF HISTORY OF FUTURISTS: MEMBERS OF THE 7TH ESTATE
A significant group within The 7th Estate, it’s important to consider the history of futurists and futurism, the art they practice. Noting this, we figured we’d provide a brief overview of the field and how it has evolved over the past decades.
Early thinkers: While futurist thinking has existed for millennia, some of the early modern futurists include Francis Bacon in the 16th century who emphasized empirical observation to predict society’s future advancements. In the 19th century, political figures like Henri de Saint-Simon and Auguste Comte also advanced ideas of a more rational, scientifically-organized future society.
Science fiction pioneers: Writers like Jules Verne and H.G. Wells in the late 1800s introduced science fiction concepts that imagined futuristic technologies and their implications. Such ideas influenced later 20th century writers like Isaac Asimov and Arthur C. Clarke who expanded the genre.
Forecasting advances: The 20th century saw advances in trend analysis and forecasting methods applied to prediction. Think techniques like Delphi surveys, trend extrapolation, and scenario planning. Institutions like RAND Corporation emerged as influential forecasting centers.
Techno-optimists: Futurists in recent decades have focused on exponential technological change, transhumanism, and the potential for emerging technologies like AI, robotics, biotech, and nanotech to transform society. Prominent futurists like Ray Kurzweil and Peter Diamandis promote the techno-optimist perspective.
Long-term thinking: Organizations like the Millennium Project, Long Now Foundation, and the Santa Fe Institute encourage long-term thinking and understanding complex global systems. Thinkers like Peter Schwartz apply scenaric thinking to inform strategy.
Mainstreaming: Today futurism is becoming more mainstream. Futurists advise corporations, government agencies, speak at major conferences and their ideas reach wider audiences through books, media coverage and films like Minority Report.
Though details vary, futurists share a common interest in studying possibilities, forecasting change, and envisioning the longer-term trajectory of society and technology. As tools and data improve, futurism continues to evolve.
